The 5 Step Lay Review-How You Can Spot A Vulnerable Horse Racing Favourite
Posted on April 11th, 2011 in Gambling | No Comments »
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As the popularity of the betting exchanges grows, so increasing numbers of people want to profit from horse racing by laying horses to lose. But what’s the best strategy? About the face from it, one might think that merely betting that the outsider will lose is really a magic formula to make easy money. The truth is, the best horse to bet against is the race favourite.
Betting that the outsider at 20/1 will forfeit is going to be fine to start with, and doubtless you will soon develop a winning run of profits. However, sooner rather than later that 33/1 shot with ‘absolutely no chance’ can come home in front, and you’ll well have laid him at a cost of 52.00 (for instance) on Betfair. BOOM! There goes all your hard-earned winnings, and more!
Generally a horse would be the favourite because it has got the weight from the market’s money behind it, which forces the cost down. Simple economics. You will see a place however, in which the horse’s prices are lacking when compared with it’s actual possibility of winning. Beyond this ‘true’ price is where the layers will quickly earn profits.
And then we proceed with this strategy, and that we proceed to lay every favourite, right? Wrong.
Horse racing favourites are often priced too low. This is how bookmakers have made their profit for generations. But they are not priced lacking each time – sometimes a favourite is easily the most likely horse to win a race for very good reason.
As we took the simplified approach of laying every favourite, before long betting on the exchanges we’d remain round the break even point, because the exchange finance industry is a very efficient barometer of probability. However, after paying commission on our winnings, we’d watch our account slowly draining away like water down a plug-hole. Bad.
Just how will we know which favourites are true favourites, and which are weak or vulnerable?
One method would be to analyse the positive aspects of the horse’s form. It won’t surprise you to learn that more favourites win when they have fewer question marks against them. This isn’t rocket science, but making the effort to separate strong contenders from weak favourites provides you with the ‘edge’ to make that all-important profit.
Below is really a listing of form criteria you are able to apply to the marketplace leader in a given race:
1. Horse and Class: Should have shown the ability or obvious possibility to seriously compete in the class of today’s race.
2. Horse and Track: Must have proven ability on either today’s track or one concentrating on the same characteristics.
3. Horse and Recent Form: Analysis of general form over the last couple weeks.
4. Horse and Race Distance: Should have shown the ability or obvious possibility to run competitively over today’s distance.
5. Horse and Draw: Highlight any obvious disadvantage if applicable.
6. Horse and Going: Should have shown a clear ability to handle today’s ground.
7. Trainer and Track: Trainer must have at least a 10% strike rate on today’s track.
8. Trainer and Recent Record: Trainer must have had a minimum of two placed a treadmill winning horse within the last 14 days.
9. Jockey and Track: Jockey should have a minimum of a 10% strike rate on today’s track.
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Rating a favourite as ‘weak’ or otherwise is entirely subjective, but you may determine (for instance) that a horse with 3 or even more question marks or negatives over their form would be considered a horse worth opposing.
Of course the question of price will come to the equation. A horse with several boxes left to ‘tick’ in the list above can be a favourite inside a weak race at 5/1. This may be a fair price, and you may not need to get involved in laying him to get rid of.
However, when a 2yo filly steps hoof to the track the very first time, and it is offered at odds-on due to the fact she is ridden by Frankie Dettori with respect to the Godolphin training empire, then you can want to consider taking her on.
To sum up: race favourites in many cases are a profitable source of potential Lay Bets, as they are often ‘over-bet’ and offered at prices lacking when compared with their actual possibility of winning. Take the time to analyse key aspects of the horse’s form and judge whether they are a ‘strong’ or ‘weak’ favourite. Should you decide they’re susceptible to defeat and also the prices are short enough, then you’ve identified a great lay bet.
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